New Market Reports Show Strong Start for Housing in 2016

Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) is kicking off the year with new market reports that provide a more detailed view of the region’s housing market. Starting with January 2016 data, we will dig deeper into trends happening within price points, between existing homes and new construction, and highlight sales and price trends by city, while continuing to report county-level trends.

The new reports for Ada County and for Canyon County are now available here.

Carey Farmer, President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Associate Broker at Group One Real Estate: “This new level of detail helps consumers understand the trends behind the trends, while also giving our REALTOR® members another tool to explain these market variations to their buyers and sellers.”

For example, looking at the Months Supply of Inventory metric for homes priced between $200,000-$249,999, as of January 2016, the demand for existing homes in Ada County far outpaced the supply, putting sellers in a great position to list. That said, buyers have a variety of options to choose from in new construction both in Ada and Canyon Counties.

“2016 started off much stronger compared to last year, both in price and the number of sales in most segments,” said Farmer. “I’ve encouraged many homeowners who are thinking of waiting until spring to list their homes, to talk to a REALTOR® now. As the January 2016 market report shows, there are huge opportunities for sellers in nearly every price point in Ada County, and especially for homes priced under $300,000 in Canyon County.”

Key metrics show increases in closed sales, pending sales, and median sales compared to a year ago for all single-family homes with all price points combined:

Ada County

Canyon County

Jan 2016

% Chg Jan 2016

% Chg

Closed Sales

459

7.7% 225

11.9%

Median Sales Price

$237,638

5.9% $146,000

15.0%

Days on Market

67

-4.3% 58

-22.7%

Pending Sales

1,109

27.9% 439

9.7%

Inventory

1,695

-11.5% 795

-23.2%

Months Supply of Inventory

2.7

-27.0% 3.1

-34.0%

 

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by city, are now available at boirealtors.com/category/market-info. And download the monthly snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County.

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS® (ACAR), which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,600 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

 

Distributed to the media on February 12, 2016.

July 2015 Market Report: Higher home prices despite seasonal sales dip?

Compared to June 2015, single-family home prices in Ada County for July 2015 were up, while pending and closed sales were down. To some these sales counts prompted questions of a slowdown—but a seasonal slowdown is quite different than a market slowdown. Based on the recent trends and comparing them to historical performance, we’re not seeing a market slowdown at this time. Let’s take a look…

Seasonal Trends          Month-To-Month June 2015 July 2015 MTM % Chg
Pending Sales 1,359 1,319 -2.9%
Closed Sales 1,035* 1,007 -2.7%
Median Sales Price $230,000 $232,500 1.1%

 

* Adjusted for sales reported to IMLS after previous month’s market report was distributed.

Market Wide Trends     Year-Over-Year July 2014 July 2015 YOY % Chg
Pending Sales 988 1,319 33.5%
Closed Sales 837 1,007 20.3%
Median Sales Price $214,503 $232,500 8.4%

We’ve highlighted pending sales, since that metric is an indicator of future sales, as the homes under contract will likely close within the next 30-60 days. So while there may be a seasonal dip in pending sales of 2.9% from June to July, looking year-over-year, pending sales were 33.5% higher than the same time last year.

Market Snapshot_July1Yet after last month’s market report, showing peaks in prices and closed sales for Ada County, it’s easy to wonder whether we’re at the top of the market, or leaning towards a downturn. Brenda Kolsen, President of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, responds: “As noted in our mid-year market report, our area typically sees a slight drop in activity each year in July or August, after the rush of the spring market, and as people take summer vacations and get ready for the new school year. Then we usually have another pop of activity in the fall. I expect we’ll see the same this year if economic conditions persist, and based on the number of inquiries our REALTOR® members are fielding every day, from people looking to buy and sell.”

The question of a market peak—or even another housing bubble—is also being asked nationally. Based on the economic trends tracked by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), that’s not likely. At an industry event held in Chicago on Monday, NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explained that the national market is very different today than it was at the “bottom” in 2008 or 2009. Most notably because of the changes in credit/lending standards and housing inventory levels over the past few years.

Mortgage lenders now follow strict rules to qualify potential homebuyers, and many of the creative loan programs that were available back then are no longer in use. This has helped to diminish the risk of buyers getting into loans beyond their financial means. Paired with improving jobs numbers, we’re in a much better situation today, both financially and economically.

Additionally, the supply of homes nationwide is well below consumer demand, which is fueling the rise in prices. Locally, we’re definitely seeing the same thing, with supply at 2.5 months in July 2015 for all single-family inventory throughout Ada County. (A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4.0-6.0 months of supply.)

“We will continue to watch local trends, especially pending sales and prices, to identify any irregularities that may emerge outside of our usual, seasonal peaks and valleys,” said Kolsen, “But in the meantime, I encourage any consumer who has questions or concerns about the market, to reach out to a REALTOR® to get the facts specific to their real estate situation.”

Here’s how the rest of July 2015 shaped up for single-family homes in Ada County:

  • Closed Sales were at 1,007, up 20.3% year-over-year, and up 19.2% year-to-date
  • Median Sales Price was at $232,500, up 8.4% year-over-year, and up 7.8% year-to-date
  • Days on Market was at 42 days, down 8.7% year-over-year, and down 5.5% year-to-date
  • Months of Inventory was at 2.5 months, down 30.6% year-over-year (number not tracked YTD)

 

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The Ada County Association of REALTORS® represents nearly 3,500 real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. For more information about the benefits of working with a REALTOR® and to search for a REALTOR® by name, language, or professional designation, visit http://myacar.com/find-a-realtor.

NOTE: The information in this market report is based on a variety of sources, but primarily on the public statistics provided by the Intermountain MLS (IMLS), a subsidiary of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, available here: http://publicstats.intermountainmls.com/static/Reports/Ada/2015/July-2015-Ada.pdf. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in Ada County during the specified time period. The IMLS provides these statistics for purposes of general market analysis, but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. (To reduce the error, only data falling within 3 standard deviations from the mean has been included in the report. Existing and new construction statistics are calculated independently and may not sum to the total number of homes sold.) Changes to methodology: Effective 3/1/2007, ‘days on market’ refers to the number of days that transpire between the listing date and the date the property goes into pending status. Effective 4/1/2011, standard deviation is modified to reflect the difference between the asking and sold prices as a percentage of the asking price.

It Pays to Take Your Education at BRR

Educational opportunities are available at BRR! We offer a variety of informational and CE classes. Check out the Class Schedule for more information on upcoming classes. There are also classes available online. Learn more on the Online Education page.

October Market Report – We Told You This Would Happen

Single family home sales in October 2014 were 665 in Ada County, an increase of 6% compared to October 2013.  This is the first month for which we’ve had a year-over-year increase since March 2014!  YTD total sales are down 3% compared to this time last year (an improvement from the 5% we were down YTD through September); 6,616 homes sold compared to 6,829.

In October, sales of homes priced above $160,000 showed increases in nearly every price category. A bright spot in October is the surge in sales for homes priced between $160,000 and $200,000; up 2%. This price point had been flat for several months.

Average Days on Market in October were 59; five more days than last month. In October 2013, Days on Market was 51.

New homes sold in October totaled 134; down 3% from last year; up 6% from September.

Existing home sales were 531; up 9% from October 2013.

Historically October sales decrease from September levels by an average of 3%.   This year there was an increase of 2%.

Pending sales at the end of October were 885; down just 3% from October 2013. This is the smallest “decrease” in Pending sales all year (April was down 18%). This bodes well for the 4thquarter sales “rebound” we are forecasting.

October median home price was $208,698; down 1% from October 2013. Our YTD median price is $209,900; up 7% over last year.

New Homes median price for September was $302,257; up 10% from October 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 1% to $190,500.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of October decreased 10% from September 2014 to 2,591. This is 3% more than last year at this time.

As is typical this time of year, inventory contracted in all price categories for October.

A positive trend in new homes inventory: for homes priced between $160,000 and $200,000 there has been a steady increase since June.

In Ada County we now have 3.9 months of inventory on hand, essentially unchanged from the end of July.

The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 to $119,000 which has 1.4 months; and $120,000 – $159,000 which has 2.1 months.

From $200,000 to $400,000 we have 4 months available.

Of sales in October, the two price points that held on to their summer pace were $120,000 – $160,000 and $250,000 to $300,000..

The fourth quarter “rebound” that we’ve been anticipating arrived in October. The very modest “cooling” of median price is a reasonable tradeoff for the increase in sales.

There was also a dip in interest rates in October.

The Federal Reserve announced an end to “quantitative easing” that will most like cause rates to rise going into 2015.

The 2014 NAR Annual Conference concluded yesterday in New Orleans.

One of the highlights was that your association, through your efforts, was recognized as the #1 Local Association in the nation for our support of RPAC (in the large Board category).

Congratulations to our RPAC Fundraising Committee, Chaired by Kit Fitzgerald and to Miguel Legarreta, our Government Affairs Director for a record setting year!

Its through our continued support of REALTOR® party initiatives and candidates that support REALTOR® initiatives that will keep our real estate recovery on track.

August Market Report- What’s Around the Corner?

Single family home sales in August 2014 were 737 in Ada County, a decrease of 12% compared to July 2013.   YTD total sales are down 4% compared to this time last year; 5,265 homes sold compared to 5,508.

In August, sales of homes priced above $160,000 showed increases in every price category. The reason our overall sales are down is because sales of homes in the five categories priced below $159,999 are down anywhere from 15% ($120,000 to $159,999) to 200% (70,000 to $89,999).

Average Days on Market in August were 53; six more days than last month. In August 2013, Days on Market was 52.

New homes sold in August totaled 115; down 25% from last year; down 25% from July.

Existing home sales were 622; down 8% from August 2013.

Historically August sales increase from July levels.   Last year the increase was 8%. This year there was a decrease of 11%.

In August our Year-to-Date sales momentum slowed. July and August 2013 were really strong months; stronger than this year.

Pending sales at the end of August were 911; down 8% from August 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for thirteen consecutive months.

August median home price was $218,990; up 9.5% from August 2013. Our YTD median price is $209,900; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for August was $309,550; up 11% from August 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 8% to $204,449.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of August increased 2% from July 2014 to 2,962. This is 20% more than last year at this time.

There was a consistent percentage of growth in all price categories for August; with the exception of homes priced above $250,000 which showed very little, if any growth.

The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $120,000 – $160,000 at 7%. The next highest is $300,000 – $400,000 with 3%.

In Ada County we now have 3.8 months of inventory on hand, essentially unchanged from the end of July.

The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 to $119,000 which has 1.9 months; and $120,000 – $159,000 which has 2.5 months.

From $160,000 to $400,000 we have 4 months; up slightly from last month.

Of sales in August, the two price points that held on to their summer pace were $200,000 – $250,000 and $250,000 to $300,000.

So…what’s next?

Our Sumer sales tried hard, but couldn’t keep up with last year’s torrid pace. There was a slow down during the last four months of 2013. Our expectation is that the final four months of 2014 will be stronger.

We have more inventory coming online in the <$160,000 which will release some pent up demand among first time buyers.

Median price is strong and getting stronger.

How to Make the Best Purchase Offer in a Seller’s Market

You’ve worked with a Realtor® to scour the listings, toured what feels like a million houses and finally found it: the house you want to call home. The next step is to make your purchase offer, and if you are like most people, the prospect can be quite intimidating. In a seller’s market, there can be even more pressure on the buyer to submit an impressive bid. So how can you make sure that the offer you submit is the one that is accepted?

“In a seller’s market, home prices are a bit higher and inventory is lower,” said Dave Ferguson, Ada County Association of REALTORS President. “This means you are more likely competing with multiple bidders. In a competitive market like this, sellers need every advantage they can get, and working with a Realtor® to make the best purchase offer is a smart move.” And, believe it or not, the bid with the highest price is not always the one that wins.

“Of course sellers want to get the best price for their home, but that isn’t always the deciding factor,” said Ferguson.  “Eliminating or reducing the number of contingencies with your bid, through things like pre-offer inspections, can also help make your offer stronger. The bid that causes the least amount of hassle for the seller is the one that will probably win.”

That doesn’t mean, however, that you should just submit a below market offer with no contingencies. “This is not the time to make a lowball offer,” said Ferguson. “When you are going up against more than one potential buyer, it’s the time to put your best foot forward.” This might be your one chance to convince the owner to sell their home to you, so it’s all the more important to submit your best possible purchase offer.”

If you can pay cash for your home, chances are your bid will be accepted. Sellers’ appreciate all-cash offers as they usually mean a quick, streamlined purchase. Financing issues, such as delays in mortgage approval or getting funds moved from the buyer’s bank account, are the primary causes of delays in the closing process. If a seller can avoid a lengthy or complicated process by choosing an all-cash buyer they likely will.

For most people, however, a cash offer isn’t a possibility, and you’ll need to qualify for some variety of mortgage financing. If this is your situation, Ferguson recommends getting preapproved for a mortgage before you begin the search process. “With loan preapproval, you’ll be able to make a solid commitment to buy, and your offer will be more appealing to the seller,” said Ferguson.

And of course, the most important thing that you can do to give yourself an advantage is to hire a Realtor®. “Realtors® have real insights and unparalleled knowledge of your local market and can help you navigate the complicated home buying process,” said Ferguson.

July Market Report: A Long Hot Summer

Single family home sales in July 2014 were 832 in Ada County, a decrease of 7% compared to July 2013.   YTD total sales are down 3% compared to this time last year; 4,525 homes sold compared to 4,674.

In July 78% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.

In July sales of homes in the $160,000 – $200,000 were up 18% from June 2014 to 194. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month and was the highest sales category behind.  Sales in price points above $200,000 cooled slightly in July

Days on Market for July were 47; one day more than last month. In July 2013, Days on Market was 44.

New homes sold in July totaled 156; down 5% from last year; up 3% over June.

Existing home sales were 676; down 8% from July 2013.

Historically July sales fall off from June levels.   Last year and this year the trend has been reversed. July 2013 increased over June 2013 by 9%. July 2014 increased over June 2104 by 4%.

July 2013 was the peak in a very strong sales year. Although we’ve had four consecutive months with sales behind the previous year, our sales trend for 22014 is strong.

Pending sales at the end of July were 988; down 20% from July 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for twelve consecutive months.

July median home price was $213,800; up 3% from July 2013. Our YTD median price is $208,729; up 7% over last year.

New Homes median price for July was $311,540; up 16% from July 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 3% to $195,000.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of July increased 4% from June 2014 to 2,907.  This is an increase we really need.  This is 14% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $160,000 – $200,000 at 7%. The next highest is $120,000 – $160,000 with 6%.

In Ada County we now have 3.6 months of inventory on hand, essentially unchanged from the end of June.

The price categories in shortest supply are $120,000 to $160,000 which has 2.1 months; and $100,000 – $119,000 which has 2.2 months.

From $160,000 to $400,000 we have 3.6 months; not much change from last month.

Of sales in July, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (23%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (18%) followed by $200,000 – $300,000 with 16%.

So…what’s next?

We’ve compared pretty well to 2013 for the first seven months of 2014. From now until December we should trend ahead of 2013 sales and median should hold steady.

We have more inventory coming online in the <$160,000 which will release some pent up demand among first time buyers.

Median price shows no signs of weakening.

Boise was named the “Best City to Move to in 2104” last week because of our ‘Median Income” “Home Value Growth” and “Home Affordability”.

All in all, I’m still feeling pretty good about how we will finish the year.

 

July Inventory

July Sales

July Median

 

November Ada County Market Report: Some Good News, And Some Bad

Single family home sales in November 2013 were 548 in Ada County, a decrease of 3.3% compared to November 2012.  I expected a better month, but sales fell about 30 units short.

Year-to-date sales are 7,385; up 14% over 2012 YTD sales of 6,471.

Dollar volume for November was up 9.5% to $131 million and YTD we are just over $1.7 billion in sales.

We now have had two consecutive months with sales falling behind the previous year. October 2012 was a really strong month; up 19%. November 2012 was pretty good too; up 15%. December is an interesting month for sales. Some years its higher than November. Some years close and some years well below.

The last two months sales have been with 5% of previous year. If that trend continues in December sales will be very near 500 units which will give us a total sales increase for 2013 of 13%.

Days on market averaged 52 in November, no change from October.  Our year-to-date average is 51 days.

New homes sold in November totaled 105; down 14% from November 2012…but slightly stronger than in October

Historically, November sales decrease an average of 9% from October.  November 2013 sales decreased 11% compared to October 2013.

Of the total sales in November, 10% were distressed; up 1% from last month. In November 2012, 24% of sales were distressed.

For the month of November, REO sales (57% of Distressed; 31 total sales) exceeded Short Sales (43% of Distressed; 24 total sales), or the first time in 2013.

Pending sales at the end of November were 831; down 9% from September 2013; but even to what was pending in 2012 at the end of November.

Of Pending sales in distress (13%), there was an increase in the number of Short Sales (from 52% to 59% of activity; 63 total sales) and a decrease in REO sales (from 48% to 41%; 44 total sales).

November median home price was $205,700; up 16% from November 2012. According to NAR’s most recent report;  national median price is $199,500.

New Homes median price for November was $274,161; up 10% from November 2012. For Existing homes the increase is 15% to $185,000.

This is the fifth month in which we’ve been above $200K.

In Ada County, the median family income is $67,519; making a $205,700 home within reach for that “median family income” family.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of November decreased 10% from October 2013 to 2,263.  This is the third consecutive month of decrease.  This is 21% more than last year at this time. Since January we have increased the number of single family homes for sale by 36%, allowing us to grow our YTD sales increase.

Historically, inventory decreases steadily from August to December. Anecdotally, I’ve spoken with several sellers who listed their homes in September/October at an aggressive price; then took one or two reductions before pulling the listing from the market, deciding to wait until Spring 2014.

Of the total active listings, 11% are distressed, up 1% from the end of October 203.

With inventory experiencing seasonal decreases and the percentage of distressed inventory holding very low, median home price will remain strong through the end of this year.

Of our Distressed Inventory, 71% is Short Sales (163) and 29% is REO (66).

Available inventory decreased at all price points except in the $120,000 to $160,000 range, with an increase of 16 homes.

In Ada County we now have 3.9 months of inventory on hand, up a little from the end of October.

The price category in shortest supply is <$100K where we have 1.8 months. All price points up to $400,000 have a 4 month’s supply. Above $400,000 the supply is closer to five months.  Remembering that six months of available inventory describes a “stable real estate market”; it looks like we are heading into a period of “normal” like we haven’t seen in several years.

Of sales in November, the most popular price point was $120,000 to $160,000 (21%); followed by $160,000 to $200,000 (17%), $200,000 to $250,000 with 14%.

So…what’s next?

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a flattening trend is expected. “The erosion in buying power is dampening home sales,” he said. “Moreover, low inventory is holding back sales while at the same time pushing up home prices in most of the country. More new home construction is needed to help relieve the inventory pressure and moderate price gains.”

For Ada County, the positives that have helped push the pace of our recovery past the national average are still in place; growing population, jobs creation and quality of life issues will bridge us through the slow winter months.

photo by: Images_of_Money