New Market Reports Show Strong Start for Housing in 2016

Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) is kicking off the year with new market reports that provide a more detailed view of the region’s housing market. Starting with January 2016 data, we will dig deeper into trends happening within price points, between existing homes and new construction, and highlight sales and price trends by city, while continuing to report county-level trends.

The new reports for Ada County and for Canyon County are now available here.

Carey Farmer, President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Associate Broker at Group One Real Estate: “This new level of detail helps consumers understand the trends behind the trends, while also giving our REALTOR® members another tool to explain these market variations to their buyers and sellers.”

For example, looking at the Months Supply of Inventory metric for homes priced between $200,000-$249,999, as of January 2016, the demand for existing homes in Ada County far outpaced the supply, putting sellers in a great position to list. That said, buyers have a variety of options to choose from in new construction both in Ada and Canyon Counties.

“2016 started off much stronger compared to last year, both in price and the number of sales in most segments,” said Farmer. “I’ve encouraged many homeowners who are thinking of waiting until spring to list their homes, to talk to a REALTOR® now. As the January 2016 market report shows, there are huge opportunities for sellers in nearly every price point in Ada County, and especially for homes priced under $300,000 in Canyon County.”

Key metrics show increases in closed sales, pending sales, and median sales compared to a year ago for all single-family homes with all price points combined:

Ada County

Canyon County

Jan 2016

% Chg Jan 2016

% Chg

Closed Sales

459

7.7% 225

11.9%

Median Sales Price

$237,638

5.9% $146,000

15.0%

Days on Market

67

-4.3% 58

-22.7%

Pending Sales

1,109

27.9% 439

9.7%

Inventory

1,695

-11.5% 795

-23.2%

Months Supply of Inventory

2.7

-27.0% 3.1

-34.0%

 

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by city, are now available at boirealtors.com/category/market-info. And download the monthly snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County.

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS® (ACAR), which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,600 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

 

Distributed to the media on February 12, 2016.

Low Unemployment, Interest Rates Keep Homes Affordable Event as Prices Rise

In November 2015, the median sales price of single family home prices in Ada County, as tracked through the Intermountain MLS, was at $240,300 up 11.5% compared to November 2014. Breaking that down by sales type, the median sales price of existing single family homes was $213,000, up 7.2% year-over-year, while the new construction median sales price was $356,209, up 11.9% year-over-year.

According to a survey from the National Association of REALTORS®, the median price in Idaho is expected to increase by 3-4% over the next 12 months (looking ahead to October 2016), for existing and new homes combined. While the survey doesn’t break those numbers down to other geographies, in Ada County, we’ve seen prices increase over the past 12 months (from October 31, 2014 to November 30, 2015) by 8.7% for all homes—the median sales price for existing homes was up 8.8% year-to-date, and by 3.9% year-to-date for new construction homes.

There are a variety of factors that will determine where prices end up a year from now, especially local unemployment rates. The latest numbers from the Idaho Department of Labor show a 2.9% unemployment rate for Ada County, as of October 2015. Boise City had the lowest rate across the state at 2.4%, and Meridian came in at 3.6%. These were all well under the 5% rate nationwide.

“There is always a concern that when prices rise, homes will become unaffordable for some people,” said Brenda Kolsen, 2015 President of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®. “We’ll certainly continue to watch affordability in our region, but with the positive jobs numbers, recent wins by BVEP which is bringing new companies to the Valley, and continued interest from people wanting to move to our area, we feel that our local real estate market is in a great position for buyers and sellers alike—and we expect it to be that way for some time.”

Additionally, low down payment programs and the continuation of historically low mortgage rates have allowed people to purchase homes even as prices have risen. In November 2015, HSH.com reported mortgage rates at 3.988%.

In addition to price, here is how the rest of the market performed in November 2015, looking at all single-family home activity in Ada County, as reported to the Intermountain MLS, a subsidiary of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®:

  • Closed Sales were at 621, up 13.1% year-over-year, and up 18.4% YTD
  • Median Sales Price was at $240,300, up 11.5% year-over-year, and up 8.7% YTD
  • Days on Market was at 50 days, down 10.9% year-over-year, and down 9.1% YTD
  • Pending Sales were at 1,152, up 39.3% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)
  • Inventory was at 1,919, down 15.2% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)
  • Months of Inventory was at 2.7 months, down 28.9% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)

Download the November 2015 Snapshot

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The information in this market report is based on a variety of sources, but primarily on the public statistics provided by the Intermountain MLS (IMLS), a subsidiary of ACAR, available here: http://publicstats.intermountainmls.com/static/Reports/Ada/2015/November-2015-Ada.pdf. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in Ada County during the specified time period. The IMLS provides these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. (To reduce the error, only data falling within 3 standard deviations from the mean has been included in the report. Existing and new construction statistics are calculated independently and may not sum to the total number of homes sold.) Changes to methodology: Effective 3/1/2007, ‘days on market’ refers to the number of days that transpire between the listing date and the date the property goes into pending status. Effective 4/1/2011, standard deviation is modified to reflect the difference between the asking and sold prices as a percentage of the asking price.

July 2015 Market Report: Higher home prices despite seasonal sales dip?

Compared to June 2015, single-family home prices in Ada County for July 2015 were up, while pending and closed sales were down. To some these sales counts prompted questions of a slowdown—but a seasonal slowdown is quite different than a market slowdown. Based on the recent trends and comparing them to historical performance, we’re not seeing a market slowdown at this time. Let’s take a look…

Seasonal Trends          Month-To-Month June 2015 July 2015 MTM % Chg
Pending Sales 1,359 1,319 -2.9%
Closed Sales 1,035* 1,007 -2.7%
Median Sales Price $230,000 $232,500 1.1%

 

* Adjusted for sales reported to IMLS after previous month’s market report was distributed.

Market Wide Trends     Year-Over-Year July 2014 July 2015 YOY % Chg
Pending Sales 988 1,319 33.5%
Closed Sales 837 1,007 20.3%
Median Sales Price $214,503 $232,500 8.4%

We’ve highlighted pending sales, since that metric is an indicator of future sales, as the homes under contract will likely close within the next 30-60 days. So while there may be a seasonal dip in pending sales of 2.9% from June to July, looking year-over-year, pending sales were 33.5% higher than the same time last year.

Market Snapshot_July1Yet after last month’s market report, showing peaks in prices and closed sales for Ada County, it’s easy to wonder whether we’re at the top of the market, or leaning towards a downturn. Brenda Kolsen, President of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, responds: “As noted in our mid-year market report, our area typically sees a slight drop in activity each year in July or August, after the rush of the spring market, and as people take summer vacations and get ready for the new school year. Then we usually have another pop of activity in the fall. I expect we’ll see the same this year if economic conditions persist, and based on the number of inquiries our REALTOR® members are fielding every day, from people looking to buy and sell.”

The question of a market peak—or even another housing bubble—is also being asked nationally. Based on the economic trends tracked by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), that’s not likely. At an industry event held in Chicago on Monday, NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explained that the national market is very different today than it was at the “bottom” in 2008 or 2009. Most notably because of the changes in credit/lending standards and housing inventory levels over the past few years.

Mortgage lenders now follow strict rules to qualify potential homebuyers, and many of the creative loan programs that were available back then are no longer in use. This has helped to diminish the risk of buyers getting into loans beyond their financial means. Paired with improving jobs numbers, we’re in a much better situation today, both financially and economically.

Additionally, the supply of homes nationwide is well below consumer demand, which is fueling the rise in prices. Locally, we’re definitely seeing the same thing, with supply at 2.5 months in July 2015 for all single-family inventory throughout Ada County. (A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4.0-6.0 months of supply.)

“We will continue to watch local trends, especially pending sales and prices, to identify any irregularities that may emerge outside of our usual, seasonal peaks and valleys,” said Kolsen, “But in the meantime, I encourage any consumer who has questions or concerns about the market, to reach out to a REALTOR® to get the facts specific to their real estate situation.”

Here’s how the rest of July 2015 shaped up for single-family homes in Ada County:

  • Closed Sales were at 1,007, up 20.3% year-over-year, and up 19.2% year-to-date
  • Median Sales Price was at $232,500, up 8.4% year-over-year, and up 7.8% year-to-date
  • Days on Market was at 42 days, down 8.7% year-over-year, and down 5.5% year-to-date
  • Months of Inventory was at 2.5 months, down 30.6% year-over-year (number not tracked YTD)

 

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The Ada County Association of REALTORS® represents nearly 3,500 real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. For more information about the benefits of working with a REALTOR® and to search for a REALTOR® by name, language, or professional designation, visit http://myacar.com/find-a-realtor.

NOTE: The information in this market report is based on a variety of sources, but primarily on the public statistics provided by the Intermountain MLS (IMLS), a subsidiary of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, available here: http://publicstats.intermountainmls.com/static/Reports/Ada/2015/July-2015-Ada.pdf. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in Ada County during the specified time period. The IMLS provides these statistics for purposes of general market analysis, but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. (To reduce the error, only data falling within 3 standard deviations from the mean has been included in the report. Existing and new construction statistics are calculated independently and may not sum to the total number of homes sold.) Changes to methodology: Effective 3/1/2007, ‘days on market’ refers to the number of days that transpire between the listing date and the date the property goes into pending status. Effective 4/1/2011, standard deviation is modified to reflect the difference between the asking and sold prices as a percentage of the asking price.

May Market Report: Opportunity for Move Up Buyers

Market Snapshot_MayLast month, we reported on trends that were driving housing demand across the country, as reported in the Economic and Housing Market Outlook from the National Association of REALTORS® and Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun. While many of these national trends are also present in Ada County, there is one area in which we differ—new construction.

Dr. Yun reported that housing starts nationally were well below the historical normal rate of 1.5 million per year, due primarily to the increasing costs of materials and labor. In many markets, this has contributed to the overall lack of inventory available for sale.

But according to the Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho, residential new construction permits were up 10% in April 2015. They did note a slight 2% decrease in the Median Sales Price for May 2015. Looking at new construction data from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS), for May 2015 specifically in Ada County, we did see similar trends in price—the Median Sale Price of newly constructed homes in May 2015 was $296,900, compared to $301,038 in May of 2014, representing a 1.4% decrease year-over-year.

Additionally, the months of available inventory for newly constructed homes was at 5.9 months in May 2015. While this was a decrease compared to last year, it was considerably higher than the months of available inventory for existing homes, which was at 2.2 months in May 2015.

While slight price decreases and a higher supply of new homes may seem like cause for concern, it’s actually a great opportunity for move-up buyers.

Brenda Kolsen, 2015 President of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, explains: “Throughout the spring market, we saw some buyers getting frustrated with the lack of inventory available, especially in the lower price points. But many owners weren’t ready to list because they didn’t want to be competing for homes, once theirs sold. But the message we’re sharing with prospective sellers, is that there are homes available, especially at higher price points and in new construction. And with rates still at historically low levels, we’re encouraging homeowners who have been thinking about selling, to meet with a REALTOR® now and review what’s possible in their situation.”

County-wide, here’s how the rest of May 2015 shaped up:

  • 901 single-family homes sold, up 14.5% year-over-year
  • Distressed properties (REOs and short sales) only accounted for 3% of the homes sold, down 50% compared to last year at this time
  • The Median Sales Price was $229,000, up 9.6% year-over-year
  • Available inventory was at 2.8 months, a decrease of 9.7% year-over-year (again, new construction supply was at 5.9 months, while the supply of existing homes was at 2.2 months)
  • Days on market was at 49, which was 2 days longer than last year, due to an increase in new construction market time, at 92 days in May 2015 compared to 76 days in May 2014

 

Notes: Based on information provided by the Intermountain MLS (IMLS). These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent fromthe owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in Ada County during the specified time period. The IMLS provides these statistics for purposes of general market analysis, but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. (To reduce the error, only data falling within 3 standard deviations from the mean has been included in the report. Existing and new construction statistics are calculated independently and may not sum to the total number of homes sold.) * Effective 3/1/2007, ‘days on market’ refers to the number of days that transpire between the listing date and the date the property goes into pending status. Effective 4/1/2011, standard deviation is modified to reflect the difference between the asking and sold prices as a percentage of the asking price.

March Market Report- Starts off Strong

Market Snapshot_MarchMarch 2015 is the strongest March we’ve had since 2007. Single-family home sales in March 2015 were 694 in Ada County. YTD total sales are up 14% compared to this time last year; 1,630 homes sold compared to $1,425.

Days on Market for March were 65. That’s slightly down from February and we see it continue to hover around the same number the past few months.

New homes sold in March totaled 134; Existing home sales were 560.

March median home price was $222,000. Our YTD Median Price is $222,700.

New Homes Median Price for March was $282,402. Existing Home Median Price for March was $210,000.

Pending sales at the end of March were 1,208.

In Ada County we now have 3.6 months of inventory on hand, a very slight increase from February, but we can use it as we go into the Spring selling season.

March was strong in both sales and median home price, this should continue into the summer.

On the National level Existing-Home Sales spike in March. NAR Study: Boomerang Buyers Expected to Boost Housing Demand

Looks like we are gearing up for an interesting summer.

Idaho Real Estate Summit 2015

The second Idaho Real Estate Summit hosted by the Ada County Association of REALTORS® was held yesterday, December 10th at  the Idaho Capitol. Topics included current housing trends and a look at our economy. Professionals from all segments of the housing industry will benefit from attending the Housing Summit.

Our Keynote speaker was Lawrence Yun the Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He will deliver insight into the National Housing Economy and a forecast for 2015. If you weren’t able to join us download the presentation here http://www.slideshare.net/AdaRealtors/idaho-real-estate-summit

Speakers covered topics including:

  • Local Residential Housing – Marc Lebowitz
  • Commercial Market – LeAnn Hume
  • IHFA Lending in Ada County – Gerald Hunter

“Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.  He oversees and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report.  He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1 million REALTOR® members.Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.  He oversees and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report.  He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1 million REALTOR® members.Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them Blue Chip and the Harvard University Industrial Economist Council. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. USA Today in 2008 listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country and he has been named among the Most Influential Real Estate Leaders by INMAN News over the past several years.Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.”

How to Make the Best Purchase Offer in a Seller’s Market

You’ve worked with a Realtor® to scour the listings, toured what feels like a million houses and finally found it: the house you want to call home. The next step is to make your purchase offer, and if you are like most people, the prospect can be quite intimidating. In a seller’s market, there can be even more pressure on the buyer to submit an impressive bid. So how can you make sure that the offer you submit is the one that is accepted?

“In a seller’s market, home prices are a bit higher and inventory is lower,” said Dave Ferguson, Ada County Association of REALTORS President. “This means you are more likely competing with multiple bidders. In a competitive market like this, sellers need every advantage they can get, and working with a Realtor® to make the best purchase offer is a smart move.” And, believe it or not, the bid with the highest price is not always the one that wins.

“Of course sellers want to get the best price for their home, but that isn’t always the deciding factor,” said Ferguson.  “Eliminating or reducing the number of contingencies with your bid, through things like pre-offer inspections, can also help make your offer stronger. The bid that causes the least amount of hassle for the seller is the one that will probably win.”

That doesn’t mean, however, that you should just submit a below market offer with no contingencies. “This is not the time to make a lowball offer,” said Ferguson. “When you are going up against more than one potential buyer, it’s the time to put your best foot forward.” This might be your one chance to convince the owner to sell their home to you, so it’s all the more important to submit your best possible purchase offer.”

If you can pay cash for your home, chances are your bid will be accepted. Sellers’ appreciate all-cash offers as they usually mean a quick, streamlined purchase. Financing issues, such as delays in mortgage approval or getting funds moved from the buyer’s bank account, are the primary causes of delays in the closing process. If a seller can avoid a lengthy or complicated process by choosing an all-cash buyer they likely will.

For most people, however, a cash offer isn’t a possibility, and you’ll need to qualify for some variety of mortgage financing. If this is your situation, Ferguson recommends getting preapproved for a mortgage before you begin the search process. “With loan preapproval, you’ll be able to make a solid commitment to buy, and your offer will be more appealing to the seller,” said Ferguson.

And of course, the most important thing that you can do to give yourself an advantage is to hire a Realtor®. “Realtors® have real insights and unparalleled knowledge of your local market and can help you navigate the complicated home buying process,” said Ferguson.

June Market Report- Longer Days

Single family home sales in June 2014 were 798 in Ada County, a decrease of 3% compared to June 2013. YTD total sales are down 2% compared to this time last year; 3,682 homes sold compared to 3,776.

In June 76% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.

In June sales of homes in the $300,000 – $400,000 were up 25% from May 2014 to 140. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month and was the third highest sales category behind $120,000 – $160,000 and $160,000 – $200,000.

Days on Market for June were 46; one day less than last month. In June 2013, Days on Market was 46.

New homes sold in June totaled 151; down 10% from last year; but…up 13% over May.

Existing home sales were 647; down 2% from June 2013.

Historically, comparing June sales to May is sort of a mixed bag. Two times between 2001 and 2014 June sales were ahead of May sales by double digits. Six times the increase was marginal. Three times sales went down. June 2014 posted a 2% increase over May.

Pending sales at the end of June were 1126; down 18% from June 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for eleven consecutive months.

June median home price was $218,650; up 4% from June 2013. Our YTD median price is $207,500; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for June was $325,900; up 22% from June 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 2% to $199,900.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of June increased 4% from May 2014 to 2,789. This is an increase we really need…maybe. This is 32% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $250,000 – $300,000 at 11%. The next highest is $200,000 – $250,000 with 10%. Below $160,000 there is no increase in availability.

In Ada County we now have 3.5 months of inventory on hand, down 5% from the end of May.

The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 – $120,000 and $120,000 to $160,000 which both have 1.8 months; actually up a little from last month.

From $160,000 to $400,000 we have 3.6 months; not much change from last month.

Of sales in June, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (21%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (20%) followed by $300,000 to $400,000 with 17%.

So…what’s next?

I predicted June’s sales would be ahead of June 2013. I missed it by 28 sales. When you look at the sales trend graph you can see how close we are to last year’s booming Summer. Looking a the same chart you can see that last July was huge. Are we going to repeat that. I don’t think so. I am still convinced that the third quarter wikk be our recovery quarter and put us back ahead of last year.

I was right on the median price prediction; but I think that will slide back closer to $205,000 in July.

NPR reported yesterday that the Fed was going to exit “quantitative easing” in October. This will, almost certainly, increase mortgage rates as we go into the fourth quarter.

We also saw last week that unemployment numbers are down to 6%.

All in all, I’m still feeling pretty good about how we will finish he year.

Boise found its way on to a few more “Best Of” lists” in June. We scored on “Biking and Beer”, “Forbes- Family Friendly”, “Best Looking Men” and “Best Secret Ski Towns” (McCall actually, but close enough) and dodged “Most Expensive” and “Most Stressful”.

We also read that the Greenbelt was the place in town to find the smartest happiest Boiseans. Tell me something I don’t know.

June Inventory

June Median

June Sales

May Market Report-Why I’m Still Smiling

Talk about what’s happening in our local market and some of the consumer data that NAR has assembled to help us better design our scope of services for targeted clients.

First the market…

Single family home sales in May 2014 were 783 in Ada County, a decrease of 6% compared to May 2013.   YTD total sales are down 2% compared to this time last year; 2,881 homes sold compared to 2,950.

In May 76% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.  This graphically portrays the smaller role that first –time buyers has on our market. In 2010 more than 52% of buyers were “first-time”. Today the number of first-time buyers is closer to 30%.

In May sales of homes in the $120,00 – $160,000 were up 21% from April 2014 to 162. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month.

Days on Market for May were 47.  That’s down eight days from April. In May 2013, Days on Market was 46.

New homes sold in May totaled 133; down 18% from last year; but…up 29% over April.

Existing home sales were 650; down 3% from May 2013.

Historically, May sales set the tone for the Summer. May 2014 posted a 18% increase over April. That’s the second highest since 2006.

(Review Chart – Keeping pace with 2013…some months will be up and some down. )

Of the total sales in May, 6% were distressed; down 4% from last month.

Pending sales at the end of May were 1161; down 19% from May 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for ten consecutive months.

Pending sales in distress are 7%.

May median home price was $209,000; up 7% from May 2013. Our YTD median price is $205,000; up 9% over last year.

New Homes median price for May was $299,900; up 10% from May 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 9% to $195,375.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of May increased 5% from April 2014 to 2,680.  This is an increase we really need…maybe.  This is 41% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $160,000 – $200,000 at 12%. The next highest is $200,000 – $250,000 with 10%. Below $160,000 there is no increase in availability.

Of the total active listings, 7% are distressed, unchanged from April.

In Ada County we now have 3.7 months of inventory on hand, down 18% from the end of Apil.

The price category in shortest supply is <$120,000 where we have 1.4 months; actually up a little from last month.

From $120,000 to $160,000 we have 2.1 months available inventory.

From $160,000 to $300,000 we have 3.6 months; all down from last month..

Above $300,000 we have a 4 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 9 months.

Of sales in May, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (21%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (20%) followed by  $200,000 to $250,000 with 18%.

So…what’s next?

Sales in May, although behind last year, show a stronger month-over-month increase than any of the last three years.

Chances are that we will continue to lag behind some months and be barely ahead in others.

Median price seems to be holding tight to the $200K level. This will go up “a little” as we head into summer.

New studies reveal that student debt is a bigger retardant on new homebuyers. Three out of four college grads say they have to wait longer to retire more of that debt before they can afford to own their first home.

On Monday, President Obama took executive action that will allow millions more people to cap their student loan payments at 10 percent of their annual incomes – an option that most, but not all, student borrowers have had since 2010.

He also urged Congress to approve a bill that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts has sponsored, and that the Senate plans to take up this week, which would allow some 25 million borrowers to refinance student loans at lower rates. And he announced a number of other measures around communication and education for student borrowers, to allow them to make more informed decisions and take advantage of the options open to them

The CFPB website also offer resources

There is demand and ability, we’ve just got to have the right product.

Bottom line…its going to be a cooler summer than last year.

March Market Report:Daffodils and Sunshine

Single family home sales in March 2014 were 580 in Ada County, an increase of 4% compared to March 2013.   YTD total sales are up 2% compared to this time last year; 1,425 homes sold compared to 1,396.

March 2014 is the strongest March we’ve had since 2007.

In March 60% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.  This graphically portrays the diminishing role that fist –time buyers has on our market. In 2010 more than 52% of buyers were “first-time”. Today the number of first-time buyers is closer to 35%.  Long-term this is could become problematic for the large number of millennials wanting to more from renters to owners.

Days on Market for March were 67.  That’s about the same as in February, but still up significantly from December’s 59. In March 2013, Days on Market was 66.

New homes sold in March totaled 112; down 17% from last year.

Existing home sales were 468; up 10%.

Historically, March sales increase from February by an average of 36%. March 2014 posted a 37% increase over February.

Of the total sales in March, 12% were distressed; down 1% from last month. In March 2013, 17% of sales were distressed.

For the month of March, REO sales (60% of Distressed; 34 total sales) exceeded Short Sales (40% of Distressed; 24 total sales).

Pending sales at the end of March were 1078; down 16% from March 2013. Pending sales have traied behind previous year’s pending sales for eight consecutive months.

Of Pending sales in distress (11%), there are slightly more Short Sales (54%; 59 sales) than REO’s (46%; 50 sales).

March median home price was $197,900; up 5% from March 2013. Our YTD median price is $200,000; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for March was $300,884; up 19% from March 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 7% to $181,125.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of March increased  5% from February 2014 to 2,246.  This is an increase we really needed going into Spring selling season.  This is 25% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

Of the total active listings, 8% are distressed, down 2% from February.

Of our Distressed Inventory, 66% is Short Sales (118) and 34% is REO (61).

In Ada County we now have 4.5 months of inventory on hand, down a little from the end of February.

The price category in shortest supply is <$100K where we have 1.2 months.

From $100,000 to $119,000 we have 1.6 months available.

From $120,000 to $160,000 we have just under 3 months available inventory.

From $160,000 to $300,000 we have nearly 5 months…except for the very popular $250,000 – $300,000 which has only 4.6 month’s supply available.

Above $300,000 we have a 6 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 22 months.  Remembering that 6 months of available inventory describes a “stable real estate market”; it looks like we are heading into a period of “normal” like we haven’t seen in several years.

Of sales in March, the most popular price point was $120,000 to $160,000 (24%); followed by $160,000 to $200,000 (21%) and  $200,000 to $250,000 with 14%.

So…what’s next?

Sales in March were jump started from February.  We are now chasing a super strong Spring and Summer 2013. April 2013 sales were 719.  Can we increase sales from 580 to 719 with Pending sales where they are? It’s going to be very close.

March is typically a bellwether month for sales and median home price. March 2014 was pretty strong in both categories.  This should continue into the Summer.

We are seeing more and more data that says that the Millennials (the big homebuyer wild card) are feeling better and better about home ownership.  Nearly 90% of Millennial buyers say “homeownership is a good investment”. Our problem is that we don’t have enough inventory to pull them out of their apartments and into homes

This is the pent up demand we’ve been waiting to see activate.

Bottom line…its going to be a roller coaster summer.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

MedianPrice_March

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES 

SingleFam_MarchInventory_March

photo by: Phil Roeder